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Agriculture and forestry can substantially increase their contribution to achieving climate neutrality, biodiversity protection, human health and other societal sustainability objectives.
However, this potential is hindered by an insufficient policy environment. A main roadblock for creating enabling policies has been the lack of a shared vision for the future of the land use sectors.
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By mid-century, agriculture and agricultural peatlands in the EU can cut their greenhouse gas emissions by 60 percent – in sharp contrast to their historically stagnating emissions.
Carbon removals can be increased in agriculture and be stabilised in forests. Biodiversity loss in agricultural landscapes can be reversed, while biomass production for the bioeconomy increases. This is possible while producing sufficient food, improving animal welfare, lowering agricultural imports and increasing agricultural exports, thereby contributing to global food security.
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Efficient land use and a more sustainable demand for food, feed and other biomass are the key levers for realising these sustainability potentials.
This requires economic incentives for the provision of public goods, such as carbon removals and biodiversity protection, which create opportunities for farmers and forest owners. Additionally, fair food environments for consumers can support and incentivise sustainable food consumption including more plant-rich diets and less food waste.
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The 2024–2029 EU legislative period is crucial, as it offers the opportunity to build an enabling policy environment.
Relevant components are an ambitious climate policy for the land use sectors, a Common Agricultural Policy that focuses on the provision of public goods, a legislative framework for sustainable food systems, an action plan for the efficient use of biomass in the bioeconomy and a European Rural Deal that supports rural areas in realising future economic opportunities.
- Format
- Study
- Date
- 10 September 2024
Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU
The land use sectors as part of a sustainable food system and bioeconomy
Preface
The land use sectors agriculture and forestry are vital for societal well-being. They provide safe, nutritious food, and have large potential to increasingly contribute to a climate neutral economy, enhance biodiversity and environmental quality, as well as prosperity in rural areas.
While pathways to climate neutrality are well defined for many economic sectors, there is currently no integrated analysis of the potential of agriculture, forestry and food to deliver on sustainability objectives within the EU. This study contributes to closing this gap by presenting a scenario for the land use sectors as part of the food system and the bioeconomy in a climate neutral EU by mid-century. It also outlines policies that incentivise and value the contributions of agriculture and forestry to societal objectives and strengthen future-oriented land use sectors.
We developed this analysis over the past two years and engaged in intensive stakeholder dialogues with scientists, policy makers, administrators and representatives from the agricultural, forestry, food and bioeconomy sectors, as well as environmental and other civil society organisations. The constructive, solutions-oriented approach of all stakeholders involved helped shape our analysis.
We hope this study serves as a useful contribution to the discussion on the future role of agriculture and forestry as part of the food system and the bioeconomy, and we look forward to continuing the exchange.
Key findings
Bibliographical data
- Authors
- Emma André, Jaclyn Bandy, Arnaud Brizay, Christine Chemnitz, Tanja Dräger, Harald Grethe, Tom Hollander, Ivonne Kampermann, Wilhelm Klümper, Nahleen Lemke, Georg Lukas, Jakob Meemken, Wiebke Nowack, Cora Petrick, Nils Ole Plambeck, Nikolai Pushkarev, Christian Rehmer, Stephanie Wunder (all Agora Agriculture)
- Publication number
- 336/08-S-2024/EN
- Version number
- 1.0
- Publication date
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10 September 2024
- Pages
- 212
- Suggested Citation
- Agora Agriculture (2024): Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU. The land use sectors as part of a sustainable food system and bioeconomy.
- Project
- This publication was produced within the framework of the project Landuse and food in a climate-neutral EU 2045.
Downloads
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Study
pdf 9 MB
Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU
The land use sectors as part of a sustainable food system and bioeconomy
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Annex
pdf 3 MB
Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU
The land use sectors as part of a sustainable food system and bioeconomy
All figures in this publication
Key measures and resulting societal impacts
Figure A from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 10
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Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from EU agriculture and agricultural peatlands between 2020 and 2045*
Figure B from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 12
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A policy mix for the land use sectors, food demand and biomass in the bioeconomy
Figure C from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 16
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Study methodology
Figure 1 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 23
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Development of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and agricultural peatlands in comparison to total net emissions in the EU
Figure 2 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 27
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Share of agriculture, forestry and fishing in employment and gross value added in the EU in 2021
Figure 3 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 34
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Distribution of EU* farms and Utilised Agricultural Area (UAA) according to farm size in 2003 and 2020
Figure 4 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 36
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Global arable land used for EU feed in 2020 and 2045
Figure 5 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 36
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Land use in the EU agricultural and forestry sectors in 2020 and 2045 .
Figure 6 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 40
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EU net virtual land trade based on world average yields.
Figure 7 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 41
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Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from EU agriculture and agricultural peatlands between 2020 and 2045*
Figure 8 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 42
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Demand and supply of biomass in the bioeconomy in the EU
Figure 9 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 51
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Illustration of short rotation coppices over time .
Figure 10 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 52
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Calorie shares of food groups in average EU food consumption in 2020 and 2045
Figure 11 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 61
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Protein content of average EU food consumption* in 2020 and 2045
Figure 12 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 63
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The importance of the food environment in influencing food consumption.
Figure 13 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 65
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Greenhouse gas emissions* of protein-rich food products per protein content, kilocalories and weight
Figure 14 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 66
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Climate impact of food along the value chain
Figure 15 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 67
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An integrated food policy for the EU, exploring the role of a legislative framework .
Figure 16 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 69
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Architecture and key elements of an EU legislative framework to promote sustainable food systems
Figure 17 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 70
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Number of food chain actors in the EU in 2020 and importance of middle of the chain actors*
Figure 18 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 71
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Food loss and waste occurring along the value chain in the EU – overview of the scope of the problem and ambiguity of data.
Figure 19 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 75
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EU livestock densities and meat market balances in 2020 and 2045
Figure 20 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 77
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EU pig densities in 2020 and 2045
Figure 21 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 78
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EU cattle densities and market balances for dairy products in 2020 and 2045
Figure 22 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 79
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EU poultry densities and market balances for eggs in 2020 and 2045.
Figure 23 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 80
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Share of greenhouse gas emissions from livestock in 2020 and 2045 and the contribution of mitigation technologies .
Figure 24 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 81
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EU Gross Nitrogen Balance (GNB) surpluses in 2020 and 2045
Figure 25 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 93
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Estimated share of arable land allocated to semi-natural landscape features in the EU in 2045
Figure 26 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 97
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The two main axes of hetero- geneous agricultural landscapes
Figure 27 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 98
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Technical bioenergy potential* of residue biomass for anaerobic digestion in the EU in 2045 .
Figure 28 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 102
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Soya and pulses – EU market balances in 2020 and 2045.
Figure 29 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 104
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Fruits – EU market balances in 2020 and 2045.
Figure 30 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 104
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Vegetables – EU market balances in 2020 and 2045
Figure 31 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 105
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Cereals – EU market balances in 2020 and 2045
Figure 32 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 106
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Rapeseed and sunflower – EU market balances in 2020 and 2045
Figure 33 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 106
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Cross-farm coordination of environmental measures in an agricultural landscape
Figure 34 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 111
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Peatland – land use and greenhouse gas emissions in the EU in 2020
Figure 35 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 114
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Share of peatland in EU Utilised Agricultural Area (UAA) in 2020
Figure 36 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 115
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Examples of paludiculture crops and potential biomass uses
Figure 37 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 116
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Peatland – greenhouse gas emissions reductions potential in the EU in 2045
Figure 38 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 118
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Exemplary path for the budgetary costs of peatland rewetting payments in the EU.
Figure 39 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 123
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Representation of forest services.
Figure 40 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 126
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Main components determining the mitigation effect of the forest sector.
Figure 41 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 130.
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Net CO2 removals from total forest land in the EU-27 between 1990 and 2021
Figure 42 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 132
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A policy mix for the land use sectors, food demand and biomass in the bioeconomy.
Figure 43 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 139
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Comparison of different scenarios of agricultural emissions projections
Figure 44 from Agriculture, forestry and food in a climate neutral EU on page 141
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Our experts
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Christine Chemnitz
Director
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Harald Grete
Director
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Wilhelm Klümper
Manager Land Use in the Bioeconomy
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Nikolai Pushkarev
Manager EU Policy for Food and Land Use Sectors